So, all I know about Roubaix 2008 comes from reading the CyclingNews live report and all of the follow up articles... and I really don't get it.I mean, these guys are supposed to be pros, and they race like a bunch of cat-5 amatuers.
Skipping most of the initial selections, lets look at the winning move... Cancellara forces it with 36K remaining and takes Boonen and Ballan with him. Good, solid move with the top favorites in it...
Given the riders varying strengths and weaknesses the race seemed almost predictable at that point. Cancellara would attack on the Carrefour de l'Arbre. Boonen would chase him down with Ballan sitting on. Ballan would counter attack, forcing Boonen to work again... ad infinitum until either Cancellara or Ballan got free. Should Boonen be strong enough he'll chase everything down and win the sprint. Both Ballan and Cancellara should have been forcing the much faster TB to work every chance they got. Boonen should have been the only one confident in taking it to the line in a group of three...
Instead, Cancellara made a couple of half-hearted moves but would ultimately settle on going to the line with TB. Ballan simply followed wheels until he was left on the front to lead the sprint out....
Okay, Boonen is arguably one of the three fastest men on the road right now... Cavendish, McEwen, and maybe Petachi have a square chance of beating him heads up. Cancellara and Ballan have not an ice-cubes chance in hell.
So, with a three minute lead over the chase, what is the worst thing that could happen to Cancellara and Ballan should they choose to flog themselves silly trying to be rid of Tornado Tom? Maybe they end up cracking and finishing second or third... guess what happens if they save it and go to the line with TB. they finish second or third... But if they continually throw body blows at the big sprinter they may just crack him and actually beat him. The choice seems pretty obvious.
I watched Hincapie and Flecha do the same thing with TB in 2005 and Hoste do it at Flanders in 2006. Maybe the prosey boys can be spared my tongue lashing if they let it happen once, but going to the line with Boonen before beating yourself silly first has become a habit. Guys... the results are gonna be the same every time...
Cancellara and Ballan may be hardmen. Anybody that can make the final selection at Roubaix is the hardest of the hard, but both those boys raced like scared gumbies in the finale of Roubaix 2008...
And that's all I have to say about that...
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3 comments:
watch E3 prijs 2007 on youtube and tell me Cancellara doesn't at least stand a little chance in the sprint
I agree with your post race analysis. Those two guys sorta screwed up. Cancellara barely came around Ballan, so that tells us something about how tired he was. They shouldn't have worked as much as they did though.
Adam... gotta chance to gander and gawk at the snippet on youtube. Looks to me like Cancellara has made the same mistake twice now... I stand by my original analysis. Cancellara may just about have an ice cubes chance in hell, but it will be a cold day there...
Andrew... I think, despite being pretty trashed, Cancellara and Ballan didn't work enough. However, the extra work should have been towards getting rid of TB, not dragging him to the line...
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